Free tool · prop firm
Prop firm challenge simulator
Your stats and the challenge rules: Kova simulates 5,000 challenges and gives you your odds of passing, plus the risk per trade that maximizes them.
Probability of passing the challenge
56%
5,000 simulated challenges · expectancy of 0.13 R per trade.
Your odds by risk per trade
0.25%
0%
0.5%
14%
0.75%
36%
1%
54%
1.25%
62%
1.5%
65%
2%
68%
Your odds rise with risk: time is what mostly limits you (34% of challenges fail for lack of time). With more days available, a lower risk is enough.
How the simulation works
Each trade wins with the probability of your win rate: it then earns your average winner in R, otherwise it costs 1 R. The simulator runs trades day after day until the target is hit, a loss limit is breached or time runs out, and repeats this 5,000 times.
Losses are measured against the starting balance, as in most challenges. A prop firm that calculates the daily loss from the start-of-day balance gives very similar results.
FAQ
Why doesn't risking more always improve my odds? Higher risk reaches the target faster, but also brings the loss limits closer: a short losing streak is then enough to fail. The right setting depends on your expectancy per trade.
Where do I find my real win rate and average winner? In your trading journal, calculated on your latest trades. An estimate from memory is almost always too optimistic.
Is the result a guarantee? No: it is a statistical estimate, which assumes your future trades look like your past ones.
Take your trading further with Kova
An estimate is good. Your real numbers are better: Kova calculates your win rate and R from your journal and watches your challenge limits. Free to start.
Get my free diagnosticOfficial sources: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Eurostat. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.