Policy rate · Fed
Fed interest rate: 4%
US Federal Reserve (Washington): current federal funds rate, next meeting, what the market expects and recent decisions. Updated automatically.
Current rate
4%
federal funds rate
Last move
+25 bp
on September 17, 2026
Next meeting
December 9, 2026
The market mostly expects a hike (100%)
What the market expects for the next meetings
Probabilities derived from short-term interest rate futures.
| Meeting | Cut | Hold | Hike | Expected rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 9, 2026 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 4.16% |
| January 27, 2027 | 0% | 49% | 51% | 4.29% |
| March 17, 2027 | 0% | 41% | 59% | 4.44% |
| April 28, 2027 | 0% | 80% | 20% | 4.48% |
| June 9, 2027 | 0% | 74% | 26% | 4.55% |
| July 28, 2027 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 4.55% |
Recent decisions
- November 9, 20264% 0 bp
- September 17, 20264% +25 bp
- December 11, 20253.75% −25 bp
- October 30, 20254% −25 bp
- September 18, 20254.25% −25 bp
- December 19, 20244.5% −25 bp
- November 8, 20244.75% −25 bp
- September 19, 20245% −50 bp
- July 27, 20235.5%
Fed rate, in plain English
The federal funds rate is the main tool of the US Federal Reserve. The Fed sets it 8 times a year to steer inflation and growth: raising it cools the economy and inflation, cutting it stimulates them.
The Fed's decisions are among the releases that move the US dollar the most: before opening a position on a USD pair, it helps to know when the next meeting is and what the market expects from it.
FAQ
- What is the Fed's interest rate today?
- The Fed's federal funds rate is 4%, since September 17, 2026.
- When is the Fed's next meeting?
- The Fed's next decision is due on December 9, 2026. The Fed meets 8 times a year to set its rate.
- How does the Fed's rate affect the US dollar?
- A higher rate pays more on US dollar deposits and tends to support it against other currencies; a cut does the opposite. What moves the price is not the decision itself but the gap between the decision and what the market expected.
Other central banks
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Get my free diagnosticOfficial sources: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Eurostat. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.